Yerevan and Baku reached a ceasefire agreement on Wednesday with the international community’s mediation. But why Azerbaijan attacked Armenia in the first place?
First of all, Armenia is the weaker player in this conflict. Therefore, a provocation of any sort from the Armenian side is tantamount to suicide. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, Azerbaijan feels strong after the Second Artsakh War victory and it feels protected by Turkey, the EU, and the US.
During negotiations to normalize relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the latter is asking Yerevan to open the Zangezur Corridor to connect Baku to Nakhichevan which will change the balance of commercial power in the Caucasus in favour of Azerbaijan. Therefore, both Armenia and Iran have refused to make territorial changes on the borders.
This latest wide-scale attack on Armenia which killed over 100 Armenian soldiers and caused big damage to civilian infrastructure was aimed at forcing Armenia to accept the Azeri demands.
Dragging Russia into conflict in the Caucasus
In the past few days, Russian forces in Ukraine received a blow in southern Ukraine and retreated from a few strategic locations. And since there is a joint defence agreement between Armenia and Russia, American and British planners think this is a good time to drag Russia into another conflict to drain Russia militarily and economically.
I’m with the opinion that says NATO doesn’t want either Ukraine or Russia to win the war. The best formula for Washington would be a long war of attrition similar to the Soviet war against the mujahidin in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
Israel’s role in the Caucasus
Israel and Azerbaijan enjoy very good relations on so many levels. While Baku buys billions of dollars worth of weapons from Tel Aviv, the latter buys over 50% of its gas and fuel needs from Azerbaijan through Ceyhan port in Turkey. Therefore, destabilization of the region means big profits for the Israeli arms industries.
Additionally, Israel perceives Azerbaijan as an advanced satellite state to spy on Iran and destabilize its domestic affairs by encouraging millions of ethnic Azeris in Iran to rise against Tehran and even call for separation.
Consequently, a stronger Azerbaijan under Aliyev boosts the Zionist presence in the region to counter Iranian influence.
This was my analysis of the matter. In your opinion, were there other reasons that I missed?
Kevork Almassian is an award-winning political commentator from Syria. He is the founder of Syriana Analysis and is known for his contribution to the literature on the Syrian war.